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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It commonly functions as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the largest improvement receives the prize. In reality, it creates an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or merely the greatest surprise.

But this year's competition is distinctly different. The group of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division winners fading and longtime underperformers improving together. During an ordinary season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this turbulent and fun season, he's competing with several other elite candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his special talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost every gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the level of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But this is not a typical campaign!

The area where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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